Pfizer Shares Sink After Drug Halted

Cholesterol Treatment Torcetrapib Caused Unexpected Deaths

Shares of Pfizer Inc., the world's largest drugmaker, sank Monday on news that the company had halted development of a key new cholesterol treatment.
The stock fell $2.96, or more than 10 percent, to close at $24.90 on Monday on the New York Stock Exchange after dropping to as low as $23.50 earlier in the session.
The company said Saturday that an independent board monitoring a study for cholesterol treatment torcetrapib recommended that the work end because of an unexpected number of deaths.
The news is devastating to Pfizer, which had been counting on the drug to revitalize stagnant sales that have been hurt by numerous patent expirations on key products. It has said it was spending around $800 million to develop torcetrapib, which was supposed to fill the void when its best-selling drug, cholesterol treatment Lipitor, loses patent protection in either 2010 or 2011. Lipitor sales totaled $12.2 billion last year.
"This is obviously unfortunate because this was the biggest opportunity in their pipeline," said Barbara Ryan, an analyst at Deutsche Bank. "Clearly there is more pressure on them to do cost cutting."
Pfizer will likely slash staff and accelerate merger and licensing deals as the pressure on it to improve its financial performance intensifies after the announcement.

Two months ago, Pfizer said it would detail plans in January to turn the company into a more nimble organization that would go beyond the program announced last year to cut $4 billion in expenses by 2008. Patent expirations will cost the company $14 billion annually between 2005 and 2007.
In the statement Pfizer issued Saturday, CEO Jeff Kindler said the company's pace of transformation will be expedited because of the loss of torcetrapib although he didn't give any specifics. Last week, Pfizer announced it was cutting 20 percent, or 2,200 jobs, of its U.S. sales force.
Ryan said Pfizer may lay off as many 10,000 people in the near future. Pfizer employs roughly 100,000 people. Ryan added that she expects Pfizer to hike its annual dividend from 96 cents to $1.10 per share in the next few weeks in the hopes of putting a floor on the stock.
But Jason Napodano, an analyst at Zacks Independent Research, does not think the dividend will be enough to prop up the shares. He points out that at the end of last month, Pfizer pulled out of its deal with drugmaker Organon to develop schizophrenia treatment asenapine. Napodano said he expected that drug to add $500 million in sales by 2010 while by that time torcetrapib's sales would total $3 billion.
"Losing asenapine was a hole in the boat. Now they have hit an iceberg," said Napodano.
Pfizer reiterated it hopes to introduce six new products to the market by 2010, but Napodano said its pipeline just doesn't have another drug which offers the sales potential of torcetrapib.
Ryan and Napodano both expect Pfizer to act swiftly to bring new products into the fold, either through acquisition or licensing. But Napodano said that until investors see what those products are, he sees little reason to buy the stock. He said he intends to review his "hold" rating on the stock.
Torcetrapib was supposed to reduce heart disease by raising good cholesterol, or HDL, reports CBS News medical correspondent Dr. Jon LaPook. And Torcetrapib is more than twice as effective at raising HDL as anything currently available. But 82 patients died while taking the drug, about 60 percent more than the control group. Hypertension and other heart problems were side effects.
Pfizer has two other products in early development to raise HDL, using the same method as torcetrapib. It is too soon say where they will be affected by the compound's demise because it still unclear what caused the patient deaths in the trial.

Torcetrapib had been shown to raise blood pressure in some patients but the other two compounds haven't displayed such a side effect, according to Pfizer.
Dr. Steven Nissen, chairman of cardiovascular medicine at the Cleveland Clinic, said it is too soon to say whether the entire class of drugs known as CETP inhibitors is dangerous or if there was something specific to torcetrapib that caused the deaths. He said that Roche Holding AG is developing drugs of the same type, and there's speculation that Merck & Co. is too. Merck declined to say if it had such a drug in its pipeline.
Roche spokesman Darien Wilson said that in clinical trials its compound has not shown a risk of elevated blood pressure and that it was slated for introduction in 2009.
Pfizer was hoping to seek approval for torcetrapib in the second half of next year.
Nissen said he will still examine the results of the study, and that if the trial showed that the drug actually increased plaque, it would indicate that there is something wrong with the way the class of drugs works.

Nissen, who has been an outspoken critic of the pharmaceutical industry, said he doesn't believe Pfizer will face any liability issues over the trial because it acted swiftly to tell the public and researchers about the problem. The results were unexpected because the review board examined the trial data in October and didn't see an increase risk of death, Pfizer said.
"I have to give Pfizer credit. They did everything the right way," Nissen said.
Analysts said that patients sign waivers, acknowledging that they are willingly participating in an experiment, which protect companies from most lawsuits. However, Fordham University School of Law professor Benjamin Zipursky said that warning patients of risks doesn't necessarily mean they can't sue later, especially if information about the trial wasn't adequately detailed or the company downplayed or hid any potential negative data about the drug.
Pfizer was planning to sell torcetrapib in combination with Lipitor. According to Pfizer spokesman Paul Fitzhenry, 82 patients taking the combination of torcetrapib died, compared with 51 deaths in the arm of the study where patients were taking Lipitor alone. Each arm of the study had 7,500 patients. Pfizer said the study didn't raise any questions about Lipitor's safety.


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Pfizer Shares Rise After Viagra Patent Win

A Beijing court has sided with the drugmaker Pfizer Inc. in a ruling against local drug makers keen to sell generic versions of Viagra in China — though it was unclear if the decision would dent the widespread availability of fake versions of the impotence drug.
The Beijing No. 1 Intermediate People's Court on Monday overturned a 2004 decision by China's patent review board. An official, who like most Chinese bureaucrats refused to give her name, confirmed the decision but said she could not provide other information.
It was unclear how the patent review board at China's State Intellectual Property Office would react to the decision. Staff at SIPO in Beijing said they had no comment. Usually, appeals of Chinese court decisions must be made within 15 days.
At least a dozen Chinese drug companies have been seeking the right to make sildenafil citrate, the main active ingredient in the erectile dysfunction drug, challenging Pfizer's exclusive right to the blue pill.
The case was seen as a test of China's willingness to protect patents, copyrights and trademarks. Pfizer welcomed the decision to uphold its patent rights, which have remained in effect pending resolution of the dispute.
"This decision affirms Chinas commitment toward an effective patent protection environment and boosts the confidence of the business community in China as an investment location," Pfizer said in a statement.
"Pfizer believes that this decision will give businesses that critically depend on intellectual property protection renewed confidence in the value of a Chinese patent," it said, referring other inquiries to its New York headquarters.
Pfizer shares rose 21 cents to $24.40 in early trading Monday on the New York Stock Exchange.

Despite Beijing's repeated pledges to crack down on widespread counterfeiting, most drugs with the "Viagra" label sold in China are counterfeit versions. Bogus versions of the drug increasingly are showing up in other markets including the U.S. and Europe.
Viagra was introduced in China in 2000, and after six months on the market, state media reported that some 90 percent of Viagra pills sold in Shanghai were fake.
China is a potentially huge market for the drug, known locally as "weige," or "great brother" in Chinese, given the country's tradition of using various substances to boost sexual performance.
Local drug makers have stepped up patent challenges in hopes of being allowed to market generic copies of various drugs. Those involved in the dispute with Pfizer, known as the "Weige Alliance," were expected to appeal the court's decision.
"We respect the Chinese law and the decision made by the court. But we may appeal. That's all I can say at the moment," said Qing Liang, a spokesman for Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Co., one of the companies hoping to make a generic version.
As a part of its agreement when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, China agreed to tighten patent protections and to encourage its own companies to invest in creating profitable new drugs and other products. But enforcement of many court decisions in favor of foreign manufacturers has been weak.
In Pfizer's case, the Patent Review Board had applied a new law retroactively, denying Pfizer's patent on the grounds that the company had not disclosed enough information about how the drug was made.
Its opponents also argued, among other things, that the drug did not meet the Chinese legal requirement of being a truly new invention, because it was developed by researchers working on medications for heart disease and high blood pressure.


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What is NEPAD?

The New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) was developed by the five initial states of the OAU (Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal, and South Africa) and formally adopted in July 2001.

NEPAD’s primary objectives are poverty eradication, sustainable development, and integrating Africa into the global economy. It focuses on establishing partnerships with industrial countries for increased aid, foreign investment, debt relief, and market access. In 2002, NEPAD was placed under the purview of the AU; a committee reports annually to the AU Assembly. In March 2007, NEPAD leaders decided the partnership should be integrated into the structures and processes of the AU by July 2008.


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How does the United States support the African Union?

In August 2006, the United States became the first non-African country to establish a separate diplomatic mission to the African Union. The U.S. Ambassador to the AU, Cindy L. Courville, pledged to help increase Africa’s trade competitiveness, enhance its peacekeeping capacity, and fight HIV/AIDS. According to the ambassador, more than $1.7 million has been allocated to supporting the political directorate of the AU.
But of the United States’ non-food aid to Africa in 2006—an estimated $3.6 billion (PDF) —no funds were specifically allocated to the African Union. “U.S. support to the AU is ad hoc, crisis-driven, vulnerable to raids from other budget lines, and uneven from year-to-year,” Cooke reported to the Senate.
The United States does support peacekeeping in Africa, but such aid is allocated on a case-by-case basis. In 2006, $175 million went toward peacekeeping operations, a portion of which supports the African Crisis Response Initiative (ACRI). ACRI trains and equips African national militaries to conduct peace support operations, a key initiative of the African Union. The United States also has contributed funds to support the AU forces in Burundi, Sudan, and Somalia. Over $400 million has gone to support the AU force in Darfur.
The United States “would very much like to see a robust African Union,” says Collins, but the State Department “has never been able to construct a coherent policy on what to do about Africa.” Instead, he says, it continues to supply money to individual countries that benefit its interests, rather than giving more substantial funding to a regional body like the AU.

What are the key organs of the African Union?

o The Assembly, comprised of heads of state. It meets at least once a year and is the AU’s main decision-making body. Assembly members elect an AU chairperson, who holds office for one year. The 2008 chairman is Jakaya Kikwete, president of Tanzania.
o The Executive Council, comprised of foreign affairs ministers of individual states. The Executive Council is responsible to the Assembly.
o The Commission, ten commissioners holding individual portfolios who manage the day-to-day tasks of the AU and implement AU policies. The Commission reports to the Executive Council. The current chairperson is Alpha Oumar Konare, the former president of Mali.
o The Peace and Security Council (PSC), set up in 2004. This body can intervene in conflicts to protect the security of the continent. It has fifteen member states, elected for two or three year terms, with equal voting rights. The PSC is also overseeing the establishment of a permanent African security force, the AU Standby Force. It plans to have five or six brigades of 3,000 to 5,000 troops stationed around Africa by 2010.
o Pan-African Parliament, begun in 2004 to “ensure the full participation of African peoples in governance, development, and economic integration of the Continent.” This body debates continent-wide issues and advises AU heads of state. It currently has advisory powers only, but there are plans to grant it legislative powers in the future.
o The Economic, Social and Cultural Council (ECOSOCC). Established in 2005, ECOSOCC seeks to build partnerships between African governments and civil society. It will include African social groups, professional groups, NGOs, and cultural organizations. ECOSOCC currently has interim members serving two-year terms; it is expected to become operational in 2007.
o The Court of Justice. In 2004, the AU agreed that the regional African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights would be merged with the Court of Justice. As of April 2008, the two courts had not yet merged.
o The Financial Institutions. The AU charter names three bodies: the African Central Bank, the African Monetary Fund, and the African Investment Bank. Of these, only the African Investment Bank has been established (PDF), but it is not yet functional. It will be based in Tripoli, Libya.


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What other interventions has the AU mounted?

The African Union has launched several other interventions, with mixed success. A March 2008 invasion of Anjouan, one of three islands making up the Comoros, resulted in the successful ouster of the island’s separatist leader. As World Politics Review notes, however, the mission attracted little attention outside the continent. The AU’s intervention in Burundi in 2003, in which an AU peacekeeping force of some 3,000 troops was deployed as a bridging force until a larger UN force arrived, is widely acknowledged as a success. In June 2004, the AU force was absorbed in a UN force of 5,650. Experts say the AU force was crucial to maintaining security (PDF) during cease-fire negotiations.

However, the deployment of AU peacekeepers to Somalia in 2007 has highlighted the body’s limitations. Of the eight thousand troops promised, only 1,500 Ugandans and 200 Burundians have been deployed thus far. The current force’s mandate expires in August 2008, and the African Union is urging the United Nations to takeover. Some members of the UN Security Council have expressed reservations about such a deployment in light of the continued inability of Somalia’s transitional federal government to improve security in the country.
Given the short life of the AU and its limited experience with peacekeeping on the continent, most say the international community views Darfur as a “litmus test” for the AU’s ability to promote peace in Africa. But “the AU requires extensive political and material support from the international community to deliver on its commitments to peace and security,” writes Kristiana Powell, a researcher at The North-South Institute, in a working paper on the AU’s emerging peace and security regime (PDF). Slow decision making and the lack of flexible funding from donors such as the EU, G8, and the United States have hindered the AU’s peacekeeping efforts.
What barriers prevent the AU from evolving into a stronger institution?
The AU faces tremendous organizational and financial barriers. It took many years for similar regional institutions in Europe, Asia, and Latin America to establish themselves, and the AU faces the additional challenges of endemic poverty and civil conflict among many of its member states. In addition, the AU relies on regional economic communities that are also weakly organized. “None of these states can really produce very much,” says Collins, “They look at the bureaucracy and they are less likely to give.” As of the 2006 Banjul Summit, only twelve countries had paid their 2006 contributions.

Others say AU reform and peacekeeper deployment is also subject to the will of its strongest leaders, namely President Umaru Yar'Adua of Nigeria and President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa. Cooke cites Zimbabwe as an example of a state in crisis that the AU has failed to assist. And at Banjul, leaders including Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe blocked the AU from adopting a much-anticipated democracy charter that would have strengthened the electoral process, ended military coups, and stopped constitutional changes to allow presidents to stay in office.

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Credit Suisse BBVA, Credit Suisse, Eni, STMicro: European Equity Preview

The following companies’ shares may have unusual price changes in European trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and prices are from the previous close.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 rose 0.3 percent to 191.27. The Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index added 0.2 percent to 1,966.27. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index, a benchmark for the nations using the euro, advanced 0.6 percent to 2,228.29.
Acciona SA (ANA SM): Enel SpA is “close” to buying Acciona’s 25 percent stake in Spanish utility Endesa SA and securing financing for the deal, Il Sole 24 Ore reported. The shares retreated 1.40 euros, or 1.6 percent, to 87.15 euros.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA SM): The country’s second-largest bank spent 1.66 billion euros ($2.14 billion) on its real estate fund to avoid selling assets after investors withdrew cash, Expansion said. The shares declined 8 cents, or 1.1 percent, to 6.90 euros.
BASF SE (BAS GY): The chemicals maker expects a further slump in demand in coming months as customers continue to deplete inventories, Focus said, citing an interview with Chief Executive Officer Juergen Hambrecht. The stock rose 53 cents, or 2.2 percent, to 24.58 euros.
Benetton Group SpA (BEN IM): Italy’s largest clothes maker will close its plant near Turin, Italy, affecting 147 jobs, la Repubblica said. Benetton told unions last month that after shutting down the Piobesi factory it will strengthen its Vicenza site and open a facility in Tunisia, the newspaper said. The stock fell 1.9 percent to 5.82 euros.
Belgacom SA (BELG BB): Belgium’s largest telephone company will have to pay about 100 million euros ($128.6 million) in back taxes after losing a dispute with Belgian authorities over the taxation of a Luxembourg unit, La Libre Belgique reported. Belgacom rose 27 cents, or 1 percent, to 27.47 euros.

BP Plc (BP/ LN): Europe’s second-largest oil company’s search for a new chairman will continue after Paul Skinner, the chairman of Rio Tinto Plc, withdrew his candidacy, the London Times reported. The shares fell 3.75 pence or 0.7 percent to 505.5 pence.
Brederode SA (BREB BB): The investment firm posted a full- year net loss of 449.3 million euros after selling most of its holdings in banks and insurers. The firm will raise its gross dividend 1.9 percent to 53 cents a share. The shares were unchanged at 12.75 euros.
Cofinimmo (COFB BB): Belgium’s biggest real estate investment fund reported an increase in rental income and stable earnings for 2008, enabling the company to raise its payout to shareholders. Cofinimmo fell 2.4 percent to 91.07 euros.
Continental AG (CON GY): Deputy Chairman Werner Bischoff still favors finding an investor for the auto supplier’s tire unit even after a rejection by Pirelli & C SpA, Focus magazine reported, citing the labor representative. The shares gained 94 cents, or 6.2 percent, to 16.17 euros.
Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN VX): The firm must pay STMicroelectronics NV (STM FP) more than $400 million to resolve claims it misled the semiconductor maker into buying auction-rate securities, an arbitration panel said in a ruling that may spur similar complaints by companies. Credit Suisse rose 4.8 percent to 32.82 Swiss francs, and STMicroelectronics added 5 percent to 4.39 euros.
Daimler AG (DAI GY): The automaker will announce a 1.6 billion-euro ($2.1 billion) savings program to counter a slump in demand, Stuttgarter Zeitung said, without saying where it got the information.
Separately, Daimler and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GY) are close to signing a cooperation aimed at saving costs and combating a slump in demand, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung said, citing an unidentified manager taking part in the negotiations.

Daimler stock climbed 35 cents, or 1.5 percent, to 24.14 euros. Shares of BMW rose 1.02 euros, or 4.5 percent, to 23.72 euros.
Deutsche Bank AG (DBK GY): The lender plans to stagger the payment of some 2008 bonuses over several years, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung said, citing supervisory board chairman Clemens Boersig. The shares added 41 cents, or 1.8 percent, to 22.79 euros.
Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA GY): The airline’s air-freight division could be endangered if Frankfurt airport implements a ban on night flights, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung said, citing an interview with Carsten Spohr, chief executive officer of Lufthansa Cargo AG. The shares gained 3 cents, or 0.3 percent, to 10.23 euros.
Deutsche Post AG (DPW GY): The mail carrier does not plan to make deliveries on Sundays or charge customers more for letters delivered on Mondays, Bild said, citing company spokesman Manfred Harnischfeger. The stock rose 5 cents, or 0.5 percent, to 10.27 euros.
Enel SpA (ENEL IM): Italy’s largest utility is “close” to buying Acciona SA’s 25 percent stake in Spanish utility Endesa SA and securing financing for the deal, Il Sole 24 Ore reported. Enel has almost reached an accord with 12 lenders, including Mediobanca SpA, Banco Santander SA and BNP Paribas SA, which would provide as much as 8 billion euros ($10.3 billion), Sole said. Enel fell 1 percent to 4.36 euros.
Eni SpA (ENI IM): Libya may raise its holding in Italy’s biggest energy company, Libyan Investment Authority Chairman Abdulhafid Zlitni told Corriere della Sera. The extent to which the fund may increase its stake in oil-and-gas producer Eni “will depend on prices and circumstances,” Zlitni told the newspaper. Eni rose 2.4 percent to 17.23 euros.
Zlitni also said Libya may buy stakes in other Italian lenders after UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) and that it’s ready to reopen talks with Telecom Italia SpA after negotiations with the phone company were put on hold. UniCredit shares fell 2.9 percent to 1.32 euros.
Fiat SpA (F IM): Italy’s largest carmaker will obtain credit lines from three banks for 1 billion euros, Il Messaggero reported. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and UniCredit SpA will provide 400 million euros each and Credit Agricole SA’s Calyon investment- banking unit 200 million euros, the newspaper said. Fiat rose 0.8 percent to 4.38 euros.
Galp Energia SGPS SA (GALP PL): Portugal’s biggest oil company said refined-product sales rose 13 percent to 4.3 million tons in the fourth quarter after it purchased the Agip network of service stations in Spain and Portugal. The shares rose 4.7 cents, or 0.5 percent, to 9.15 euros.
Groupe Danone SA (BN FP): The world’s largest yogurt maker’s stake in Chinese partner Hagzhou Wahaha Group Co. is “not strategic any more,” Investir said, citing an interview with Chief Executive Officer Franck Riboud. The shares rose 85 cents, or 2.3 percent, to 38.54 euros.
Grupo Ferrovial SA (FER SM): The U.K.-based private equity company 3i Group Plc has withdrawn from bidding for the Spanish builder’s London Gatwick airport, the Sunday Times reported. The shares gained 49 cents, or 2.2 percent, to 22.32 euros.
Hennes & Mauritz AB (HMB SS): Europe’s second-biggest clothing retailer will report sales figures for January. Hennes & Mauritz lost 1.6 percent to 329 kronor.

Hypo Real Estate Holding AG (HRX GY): Hypo is the only German bank that could be nationalized as the government will narrow a planned law to exclude other lenders, Reuters said, citing unidentified people from the government. The shares dropped 5 cents, or 4.2 percent, to 1.13 euros.
Legal & General Group Plc (LGEN LN): (The U.K.’s third- largest insurer is in talks with the U.K. Financial Services Authority over the amount of money it should set aside for defaults in its bond portfolio, the Financial Times reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the company. The stock fell 5.2 percent, or 9.5 percent, to 49.5 pence.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY LN): The U.K. bank formed by Lloyds TSB Group Plc’s takeover of HBOS Plc will pay 120 million pounds ($172.3 million) in staff bonuses, the Sunday Telegraph said, citing unidentified people close to the bank. The shares dropped 29.5 pence, or 32.5 percent, to 61.4 pence.

Repsol YPF SA (REP SM): Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa said he has given the order to begin a lawsuit against Spain’s largest oil company and Perenco SA, a French oil company, over their failure to pay taxes. The shares advanced 9 cents, or 0.7 percent, to 13.93 euros.
Rexel SA (RXL FP): The world’s largest distributor of electrical equipment plans to cut staff numbers by 5 percent to 6 percent this year, as it did in 2008, Le Journal des Finances said, citing an interview with Chairman Jean-Charles Pauze. The shares declined 3 cents, or 0.7 percent, to 4.47 euros.
Rio Tinto Plc (RIO LN): Institutional investors in Rio Tinto Plc have encouraged BHP Billiton Ltd. to restart a takeover bid for its rival, the Sunday Telegraph said. Separately the miner is in talks with investors about possible concessions to its financing deal with Chinalco, the Financial Times reported without attribution. The stock rose 50 pence, or 2.6 percent, to 1989 pence.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS LN): The biggest U.K. government-controlled bank plans to cut as many as 20,000 jobs and pull out of several emerging markets as it announces losses of 30 billion pounds ($43.1 billion) next week, the Sunday Times reported, without saying where it got the information. The shares dropped 2.2 pence, or 9.2 percent, to 21.8 pence.
RWE AG (RWE GY): Chief Executive Officer Juergen Grossmann aims to reorganize the German utility’s units to simplify its structure and cut costs, Sueddeutsche Zeitung said, citing unidentified people at the company. The stock dropped 1.46 euros, or 2.5 percent, to 57 euros.
Saab AB (SAABB SS): The Linkoeping, Sweden-based company is proposing to sell 85 Gripen fighter planes for 4.8 billion euros to the Netherlands, which plans to replace current F-16 planes, NRC Handelsblad reported Feb. 14, citing several unidentified people in Sweden. Saab retreated 16 percent to 67.5 kronor.
Securitas AB (SECUB SS): The world’s largest security company may say it had net income of 630.7 million kronor for the fourth quarter on sales of 16 billion kronor, according to analysts. The share climbed 1.1 percent to 69.5 kronor.

Telecom Italia SpA (TIT IM): Italy’s biggest phone company may have hired Morgan Stanley to manage the sale of its German business Hansenet, Il Sole 24 Ore said. It also hired Merrill Lynch & Co. to advise on its television business Telecom Italia Media SpA (TME IM), the newspaper said. Telecom Italia rose 4.5 percent to 1.05 euros and Telecom Italia Media gained 0.1 percent to 7.89 euro cents.
TNT NV (TNT NA): Europe’s No. 2 express-delivery company will report fourth-quarter earnings before the start of trading. TNT may say profit for the period rose 26 percent after the company completed spending on eliminating jobs at its mail unit. The shares rose 16 cents, or 1.1 percent, to 14.60 euros.
William Hill Plc (WMH LN): The U.K.’s second-biggest bookmaker will announce plans later this month for a 200 million- pound ($287 million) rights offer, the Sunday Telegraph said, without saying where it got the information. The shares rose 8.75 pence, or 3.6 percent, to 250 pence.

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Gasoline bottoms Gasoline Bottoms as Valero Cuts to Counter Slump

-- Gasoline, the worst energy investment of 2008, is becoming this year’s hottest commodity as production drops to a 17-year low and 24,000 U.S. refinery workers threaten to strike.
Employees from Exxon Mobil Corp. to Royal Dutch Shell Plc are ready to walk off the job should contract talks fail, after negotiations were extended Jan. 31. Valero Energy Corp., the biggest U.S. refiner, already idled as much as 30 percent of its gasoline production capacity because of slowing demand. ConocoPhillips, the second largest, says about 15 percent of its refining capacity is off line.
A walkout may benefit refiners, helping them work off inventories that are up 23 percent since Sept. 19, according to Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group, an oil consultant in Villanova, Pennsylvania. At the same time, higher gasoline prices would boost consumer costs as President Barack Obama battles the worst slowdown since the Great Depression.
“A significant amount of refining capacity is now under threat,” Schork said in a phone interview yesterday. “We’re talking about a potential $1, $1.25 if you get a prolonged strike that shuts in a considerable amount of gasoline production.”
Gasoline has rallied 14 percent this year, the biggest gain on the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, to $1.1492 a gallon. The pump price is $1.88 a gallon. Prices tumbled 59 percent last year as a credit crisis pushed the U.S., Europe and Japan deeper into recession, cutting motor fuel demand.

Rising Prices
Gasoline futures may more than double to $2.399 as we approach summer, Schork said. Prices may rise another 83 percent by May, or 95 cents a gallon, to $2.10 a gallon, said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., an energy consultant in New Canaan, Connecticut.
The union for refinery workers didn’t receive any new proposals yesterday from The Hague-based Shell, which is representing the companies. The parties extended talks on a new contract after failing to meet their settlement deadline.
The deadline will be rolled over every 24 hours until a deal is reached or the United Steelworkers terminates the contract and gives strike notice. The union hasn’t picketed since 1980. The contract was scheduled to expire at 12:01 a.m. Feb. 1.
The union is seeking higher wages, a cost-of-living adjustment, and full medical, dental and vision-care benefits for workers and retirees. Workers also want improvements in plant safety practices after a March 2005 explosion at BP Plc’s refinery in Texas City, Texas, killed 15 people and injured 170.

Lost Capacity
About 1.7 million barrels a day of capacity, or 8.7 percent of the U.S. total, would be lost in a strike if the companies shut refineries as threatened, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. Gasoline futures rose almost 10 percent last week on the New York Mercantile Exchange on concern about a walkout.
BP, based in London, plans to close four refineries in California, Texas, Ohio and Indiana in a strike. Valero will idle plants in Tennessee and Delaware. Shell and Exxon Mobil plan to keep operations running with contingency crews and managers.
Even before the strike threat, companies curtailed operations after gasoline sold for less than crude oil in 55 of 66 days last quarter, meaning some lost money on every gallon produced. In December, crude oil cost on average 85 cents a barrel more than gasoline.
Refineries operated at 82.5 percent of capacity in the week of Jan. 23, the lowest rate for this time of year since 1992, according to the Energy Department in Washington.
Gasoline’s premium, called the crack spread, is likely to widen to at least $20 a barrel by the spring in the U.S. from $11.605 on Jan. 30, Beutel said. That increase would yield $196,000 for a trader who sold $1 million of May Nymex crude oil contracts and bought $1 million of May gasoline on Jun. 30.

Maintenance Shutdowns
Maintenance shutdowns are also reducing supplies. U.S. East Coast refineries are expected to cut gasoline output by 164,000 barrels a day next month, five times more than normal, according to the Energy Department.
Valero, based in San Antonio, said Jan. 27 that average operating rates for its refineries’ gasoline-making fluid catalytic cracking units are running between 70 and 75 percent of capacity to end losses that prevailed late last year.
“If the industry does not balance supply with demand, we are going to have negative margins,” Valero Chief Executive Officer William Klesse said on a Jan. 27 conference call.
Houston-based ConocoPhillips expects refinery use rates near 80 percent during the first quarter because of maintenance and narrow margins for some plants. The company said its Wilhelmshaven refinery in Germany will reduce production because of deteriorating profitability.

Gasoline Demand
Falling gasoline demand is keeping prices in check. Consumption, which declined in 2008 for the first time in 17 years, averaged 8.8 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended Jan. 23, down 1.7 percent from a year earlier, Energy Department data show.
Prices are “fighting a fundamentally very weak market that has terrible demand dynamics,” Benjamin Dell, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York, said in a telephone interview.
The decline in gasoline use has slowed, and sales will pick up in the second half of the year as economies recover, Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London, said in a telephone interview. U.S. growth will be 2 percent in the fourth quarter, rebounding from a 3 percent decline in the three months through March, economic forecasts compiled by Bloomberg show.
“The overall demand profile does look better for the second half of the year,” said Horsnell. “That has justified a move away from these kind of negative” margins of last year.
Stimulus Bill
President Obama’s $819 billion economic stimulus bill, currently moving through Congress, may encourage Americans to drive more, said Andy Lipow, president of Houston-based Lipow Oil Associates LLC and a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trader.
The average U.S. pump price, which typically lags behind futures by four to eight weeks, has increased 16 percent this year, according to AAA, the largest U.S. motoring club. Prices fell close to a 5-year low of $1.616 a gallon on Dec. 30, from a record $4.114 in July. Crude oil traded at $40.08 a barrel on the Nymex today, down 10 percent this year.
“We see just a small increase in crude oil, if at all, but we do see gasoline prices improving,” said James Cordier, money manager at OptionSellers.com in Tampa, Florida.

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Stimulus Bills Deal Struck on Stimulus Bill

After a day of jawboning from President Barack Obama and behind-the-scenes negotiating to gain Republican support, the Senate on Feb. 6 crafted a compromise stimulus spending bill and began debating the changes Friday night. A vote was expected sometime over the weekend.
CNN and the Associated Press both reported that the new stimulus spending plan would be $780 billion, down from $937 billion. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) took to the Senate floor at about 7 p.m. to open debate on the package.

The compromise came on a day when the government reported another 598,000 unemployed in January and an unemployment rate of 7.6%—economic statistics that Democrats used to heighten the sense of urgency behind passing the plan. Along with tough words from Obama on the need for the stimulus plan, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel was dispatched to the Capitol to help craft revisions to the stimulus package that would satisfy Democrats and moderate Republicans.

60 Votes Needed to Pass
Emanuel met with Republican Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, who along with Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Independent Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut were the main negotiators on the compromise. Republicans had argued that the stimulus bill was too large and included provisions that wouldn't produce jobs quickly.
Democrats have a 58-41 majority in the Senate, but because of procedural issues 60 votes are needed to pass the stimulus package. Only 57 Democrats have been voting because of the illness of Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts. There were reports last night Kennedy would return to Washington if needed to cast a vote.
Even after the reductions are negotiated, the stimulus plan would still provide tax cuts for individuals and business, aid to cash-strapped states, and billions of dollars in new spending to boost support for jobless benefits, food aid for the poor, and road and bridge construction.

Situation Is "Serious"
Obama, who pushed for the stimulus package during a televised speech to House Democrats on Feb. 5, took up the theme again Friday morning in remarks made during appointment of an Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Noting the unemployment report, Obama said: "I am sure that at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, members of the Senate are reading these same numbers this morning. I hope they share my sense of urgency and draw the same, unmistakable conclusion: The situation could not be more serious."
Obama added: "The bill before Congress isn't perfect, but it is absolutely necessary. We will continue to refine it and improve it. There may be provisions in the bill that need to be left out and some that need to be added. But broadly speaking, it is the right size."
While the negotiations were conducted behind closed doors, public debate over the bill continued. "While we dither, Rome burns," Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) said, noting that the number of unemployed in her state was greater than the total population of other states.
McCain Not a Supporter
As some Republicans leaned toward compromise, their former Presidential candidate, Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.), railed against the bill. "We want to stimulate the economy, not mortgage the future of our children and grandchildren by the kind of fiscally profligate spending embodied in this legislation," said McCain, who emerged as a chief Republican opponent of the proposal.
On Jan. 28, the House of Representatives passed a different version of the stimulus bill, totaling $819 billion. That bill passed without any Republican votes. The stimulus plan must still be reconciled in conference and the revised bill passed by both houses of Congress. Obama hopes to sign a stimulus bill by Feb. 16.

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Forced sales

My Take on This Very Risky Market

I have been working hard to keep the 120 or so RIA firms with which my firm works informed of what has been happening in the markets and why it is happening, so that they can communicate effectively with their clients. On Friday, I gave the third in a series of talks I have given over the last two weeks or so as the crisis has played out. Below are some notes from Friday's discussion.
We certainly live in interesting times. While I have witnessed events like this before, never have I seen so many at one time and with such a big impact---again, the lesson to remember is to never treat the unlikely as impossible and don't take more risk than you need to (at least without being fully prepared for the possible consequences). With that said, here is a short summary of what I believe is happening.

There are two main things going on now. The first is recognition that the economic crisis in the US is having a much greater impact around the globe on economies than almost anyone expected. So economies are likely to see slower growth (China) and/or steeper recessions (developed countries) than previously expected. In fact, the US housing and auto sectors were already in a Depression, not recession, type condition, with falls of production of more than 20%, and it is clearly going to get worse. So this is the bad beta showing up--economic cycle risks. The likely next step (my guess is that it will happen fairly quickly) is that you will see quick policy responses from Central Banks and governments. I would be surprised if we do not see coordinated rate cuts and fiscal stimulus programs from the developed countries very soon.
However, the emerging countries are another story, and this is compounding the problem. We are seeing here a likely repeat of the summer of '98, with currency crises spreading. It seems likely that the flight to quality will hit emerging markets hard--their currencies are getting hit hard, their debt, which had been rising in value, is getting crushed right now with EM bond prices collapsing. Risk capital is either fleeing on its own or being forced to flee by margin or collateral calls. For example, the Payden EM bond fund, which was up early in the year and down 7% at end of September, is now down 25%.

There are other "legs of the stool" being chopped off. Here is an example:

The commodity producing countries that rely on revenue from those sources to support the government/economy are getting hit hard, including countries like Venezuela, Argentina, Russia, Indonesia, etc. Argentina, on Thursday, basically confiscated (nationalized) the pension system to gain access to the dollars in the plans. There is going to be now risks of country defaults, like the summer of '98. And, of course, that can lead to geopolitical risks increasing.
Of course, the flip side is that the importing countries will benefit by lower costs, but they also will no longer be able to export as much to the commodity producing countries. And while the IMF will almost certainly try and help, there is simply not enough money around to bail all out the countries. As an example, we have seen Iceland basically go bankrupt as a country. Hungary, in the face of a global recession, had to raise interest rates 3% to help stem flight capital. I would not be surprised to see some countries' markets close, like Malaysia's market did in the summer of 1998.
So that is one of the things now hitting the market very hard: the continued flight to quality is accelerating.
But there is another major factor compounding the problem, leading to the kind of dramatic moves we are seeing. It is the forced selling caused by margin and collateral calls. The hedge fund world, which we have avoided, is basically being destroyed to a great degree. I would not be surprised if a third to a half of all hedge funds disappears within a year or two. You are seeing forced selling by margin calls on those that are leveraged and also forced selling even by those that are not leveraged as they have to prepare for return of capital calls which they know are coming at year end. They are selling at any price---price does not matter, they have to sell; and thus, with few buyers, prices will now simply collapse.

And another place that forced selling is coming from is corporate executives who used margin loans to exercise stock options and or simply buy stock they thought was undervalued. They are now being forced by margin calls to sell. Many examples of individual cases of forced sales in the hundreds of millions of dollars, with Sumner Redstone being just one such case in the news.

There is also a seeming amazing "anomaly" happening--but the anomaly is easily explained: The two countries with the lowest interest rates are rising at the fastest pace in history. Never have we seen moves like this. EVER. The dollar has gone from 160 to 126 in a few months and seems now certain to go higher as I will explain. And the yen, with even lower interest rates is rising much faster. (and that has another consequence which I will explain). Why is this happening?

Two reasons:
First, the dollar is benefiting from the flight to liquidity and quality
Second, the dollar and the yen are benefiting from the forced unwinding of the "carry trade." Those that borrowed "cheap" dollars and yen to invest in other higher yielding currencies have been caught on the wrong side of that trade now. And hedge funds typically heavily leverage this trade, so they are getting the double whammy of the currency bet going wrong, the banks demanding margin, leading to forced selling and their clients asking for money back as allowed and that leads to more selling and the yen and dollar rise in a vicious cycle of forced unwinding of the positions.

But there are other problems. The Japanese economy, one of the largest in the world and still trying to recover from the recession that started in 1990, is getting hit hard now by the rising yen. They are heavily dependent on exports for economic growth (high savings rate in the country keeps domestic spending down) and the global recession combined with the rising yen is hurting bad. That is why the Nikkei is getting hit so hard.

Unfortunately, we are now likely faced with the worst recession for the globe that we have seen in the post war era. We are likely to see steep falls in economic activity. You can see this for example in Friday's fall in oil prices of another $4 to about $64, despite OPEC announcing cutting production by 1.5 million barrels (by the way--I don't see how they can actually sustain a cut since the governments of producers like Venezuela are desperate for cash now that prices are down--that is why cartels never last). Note that we are already seeing major announcements of layoffs by even companies like Merck (MRK), let alone the financial services industry and the industrial sector.

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I view this week as a knock-down, drag-out battle between the US Government (Obama, Geithner, and the Senate who all want desperately to keep the stock market from falling) and the stock market itself which wants to drop precipitously. No doubt in my mind the government is aware that the timing of its news releases impacts the stock market drastically and this is why Geithner moved his speech from Monday to Tuesday. When the House passed its version of the stimulus package two weeks ago it was followed by a precipitous fall in the stock market in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” fashion. By postponing his speech until Tuesday, Geithner has the ability to make modifications for “damage control” purposes.

There will be no short supply of news this week with the Senate’s initial preliminary vote scheduled for Monday, Geithner’s speech tentatively scheduled for Tuesday, the Senate’s final stimulus plan vote also scheduled for Tuesday (which could easily be postponed), and many Senators believing a final bill will be on the President’s desk by Monday, February 16th as Obama has “ordered.”

In my opinion, the negative economic data is overwhelming at this point. The market actually rallied last week (especially on Friday), and at the very least we’re due for some profit taking sales. However, anticipation of all the news events scheduled for this week could actually prevent the massive sell-off that we’re due for, and who knows… Geithner and Obama may actually be able to pull some magical trick out of their sleeve that will result in an upward pop in the stock market the way it used to when the Fed announced an unexpected interest rate cut.

More likely, the bad economic data will be overwhelming and the S&P 500 will start moving downward. The big question for me is the timing of the short trade. Because the market rallied last week and because I believe we're due for a selloff, I'm looking for an entry point to get short again. Members will know if and when I hop back on the short side. And on a much bigger scale, this will undoubtedly be a very interesting week for the stock market.

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