Exchange Rate

The market has been in the process of mounting a significant rally out from the historic lows set by 0.9060 in November 2007. It now appears that a fresh higher low is in place by 1.1465 (November 2008 low) to be confirmed on a break back above 1.3020. The late February break of a multi-week triangle pattern strengthens constructive outlook with the breach of triangle resistance now projecting a measured move objective over the coming months back to challenge the 1.4000, 2004 highs. We would however recommend that longer-term bulls proceed with caution, with the monthly RSI now crossing above 70.

The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark rate to 0.50% which erased any yield advantage that it had over the Fed Funds rate. An aggressive statement following the rate decision has markets expecting another 40 bps worth of easing from the central bank. As expectations for the Fed Funds Rate remain plus 41, the spread continued to indicate bullish USD/CAD sentiment.

Although further easing is generating a bullish bias, recent price action indicates that the relationship between interest rate expectations and price action has faded. However, we do expect the relationship between commodities prices in particular oil will continue to hold its influence over the Canadian dollar.


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